“What could cause a market decline? A drop in investor confidence — perhaps the commodity that’s most freely available today — would likely be the key, but the reason is hard to foresee. ‘We’re not expecting any surprises,’ people say, and that has become our new favorite oxymoron. Surprises are never expected — by definition — and yet they’re what move the market. (If they were expected, their effects would already be priced into the market, rendering a price reaction unnecessary.) The next surprise might be geo-political (oil embargo, war in Korea), economic (tight money, slowing profit growth) or internal to the market (competition from bonds at higher interest rates, discovery of a fraud), but it’s most likely to be something that no one has anticipated — including us.” – Howard Marks, September 1997 (“Are You An Investor or a Speculator?“).