“The vast majority of today’s negative-yield bonds are in Europe and Japan. One of the biggest questions surrounds whether negative rates will reach the U.S. This question takes me back to my immediate response to Ian’s suggestion that I write this memo: nobody knows, and certainly not me. When something hasn’t happened in the past, it’s impossible to be sure you know how it’ll end up. Different people will express opinions on this subject with differing degrees of confidence. Yet I remain certain that none of them ‘know.'” –Howard Marks.
“For every asset, there’s a price that’s low enough to make the risk palatable . . . Low price is the remedy for everything.”
“It’s not what you buy that determines your results, it’s what you pay for it.” –Howard Marks (Mastering the Market Cycle).
“I’m firmly convinced that markets will continue to rise and fall, and I think I know (a) why and (b) what makes these movements more or less imminent. But I’m sure I’ll never know when they’re going to turn up or down, how far they’ll go after they do, how fast they’ll move, when they’ll turn back toward the midpoint, or how far they’ll continue on the opposite side. So there’s a great deal to admit uncertainty about.” —Howard Marks.
“The philosopher Cicero said something beautiful. He said, ‘The thankful heart is not only the greatest of all the virtues, but it is the parent of all the other virtues.’ And I think what that means is that people who are lucky should thank their luck, acknowledge it and revel in it. I think it will also make them want to share the fruits of their luck with others.” –Howard Marks.
“We don’t consider ourselves good macro-forecasters (or even people who believe in forecasting). So we certainly are in no position to say when the recession or market pullback will start, how bad it will be…or even that there definitely will be one. But we think we’re unlikely to be proved wrong if we say cyclicality is not at an end but rather is endemic to all markets, and that every up leg will be followed by a down leg.”
“In both economic forecasting and investment management, it’s worth noting that there’s usually someone who gets it exactly right… but it’s rarely the same person twice. ”